Rumors of coup attempt in Thailand

POSTED: 12:00 p.m. EDT, September 19, 2006

BANGKOK, Thailand (CNN) -- Tanks have been seen rolling through the streets of Bangkok, Thailand, on Tuesday amid rumors of an attempted coup, witnesses tell CNN.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra -- currently at the U.N. headquarters in New York -- went on a government-owned TV station and declared a state of emergency, The Associated Press reported.

According to officials at the Thai mission at the United Nations, Thaksin has moved up his speech to the General Assembly to Tuesday night and will return to Bangkok after his address.

He had been scheduled to address the assembly on Wednesday.

Thaksin has been under considerable pressure to step down. Elections in Thailand are scheduled for November after the country's constitutional court ruled April's vote was unconstitutional.

Thaksin had called for the elections in April, three years early, after opponents accused the billionaire leader of abusing the country's system of checks and balances and bending government policy to benefit his family's business.

Copyright 2006 CNN. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Associated Press contributed to this report

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Channel News Asia, Singapore @ 20 SEP 2006 (0135 HRS (SG-Time)) -- Singapore's Foreign Ministry (MFA) says the situation in Thailand remains uncertain. The Ministry and the Singapore Embassy in Bangkok are closely monitoring the situation. The Foreign Ministry advises Singaporeans intending to travel to Thailand to monitor developments there closely.

If they decide to travel to Thailand, the Foreign Ministry says they should register with the Ministry through its website at www.mfa.gov.sg. This will enable the ministry and its embassy to contact Singaporeans and render them the necessary assistance. The ministry says Singaporeans already in Thailand should also closely monitor news on the situation there. They should take the necessary precautions for their personal safety.

During this period of uncertainty, Singaporeans are advised to monitor the news, remain in a safe location and avoid areas where there is risk of disturbance. Singaporeans who are concerned about the safety of relatives and friends in Thailand can contact MFA or the Singapore Embassy in Bangkok at the following numbers:


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Channel News Asia, Singapore @ 19 SEP 2006 (2319 HRS (SG-Time)) -- Thailand's army chief Lieutenant General Sonthi Boonyaratglin has been sacked and a state of emergency declared in Bangkok amid rumours of a coup against the government. Local television reported that a new army chief has already been appointed.

"He is in charge of solving the problems while the country faces an urgent situation," Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was quoted by television as saying about the new military commander.

A UN official said in New York that Mr Thaksin had brought forward his address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday amid a revolt by his military in Bangkok.

Mr Thaksin had been scheduled to address the annual General Assembly on Wednesday, but the order of speeches was altered and he will instead speak on Tuesday evening, the UN official added.

Government officials said Mr Thaksin planned to return from New York on Thursday, a day earlier than scheduled. Earlier, witnesses said more than 10 tanks and heavily armed troops blocked roads around Government House in Bangkok.

They added that forces loyal to the sacked Thai military commander have seized Government House. Meanwhile, army television broadcast images of the royal family and songs associated in the past with military coups.

Thai military and police claiming to have seized control of the capital Bangkok appear to have taken over all six of the kingdom's public television stations, as well as radio stations, a senior military official said. The announcement said the troops belonged to the "Council of Political Reform".

But it was unclear if they sided with Mr Thaksin or sacked military commander General Sonthi. Bangkok has been gripped by rumours of an imminent military coup amid ongoing political uncertainty linked to demands that Mr Thaksin step down.

Unconfirmed reports said that the military was going to make an announcement during the night, but it is unknown what that announcement might be. In New York, the White House said it was aware of breaking news reports about the political situation in Thailand and was seeking additional information.

"We've seen the reports, and we are seeking additional information," national security spokesman Frederick Jones told reporters as US President George W. Bush prepared to address the United Nations General Assembly. - AFP/DE


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Channel News Asia, Singapore @ 20 SEP 2006 (0056 HRS (SG-Time)) -- Heavily-armed troops backed by tanks took control of the Thai premier's office in Bangkok on Tuesday while Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was out of the kingdom, witnesses said.

Witnesses outside Government House in central Bangkok said forces loyal to sacked military commander Lieutenant General Sonthi Boonyaratglin had taken control of the building in what appeared to be a coup.

An announcement flashed on all public television channels said police and military forces loyal to King Bhumibol Adulyadej had taken control of Bangkok "to maintain law and order". It was accompanied by patriotic music.

The announcement said the troops belonged to the "Council of Political Reform". It apologised to Thai citizens for the unrest and asked for them to cooperate.

Coup spokesman Lieutenant-General Prapart Sakuntanak said on television that the armed forces' seizure of control was temporary and power would be "returned to the people" soon. He said the coup was necessary because Thaksin's government had divided the country and corruption was rampant.

The military action came as Thaksin prepared to address the United Nations General Assembly. He told Thai television from New York that he had sacked Sonthi and declared a state of emergency.

Thaksin said he had already appointed a new army chief to stabilise the kingdom, which has been gripped by months of political uncertainty and rumours of an impending coup.

"He is in charge of solving the problems while the country faces an urgent situation," Thaksin was quoted by television as saying about the new military commander, who was not named. UN officials said Thaksin had brought forward his address to the UN General Assembly.

A Thai government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Thaksin was considering cutting short his stay in New York to return to face the crisis. "He is planning to leave New York as soon as possible," the Thai source told AFP in New York.

Thailand's military later imposed martial law in Bangkok and revoked the emergency decree declared by Thaksin, a top general said. Meanwhile, army commanders loyal to Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra are holding crisis talks late on Tuesday outside Bangkok, military officials said.

"The supreme commander is chairing a meeting right now. He will spent more time making up his mind on the next move," said Major General Palangkoon Khlaharn, spokesman for Defence Ministry Supreme Commander General Ruengroj Mahasaranond.

Thailand has limped along without an elected government since Thaksin dissolved parliament in February as pressure mounted on him to quit over corruption allegations.

Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in response at the time, angered in part over the Thaksin family's tax-free sale of its US$1.9 billion stake in Shin Corp, the telecoms giant Thaksin founded before entering politics. In a bid to quell the mass rallies, Thaksin called a snap vote in April, three years ahead of schedule.

An opposition boycott guaranteed Thaksin a victory but also sunk the credibility of the polls, which were later invalidated following a rare intervention by Thailand's king, who asked top judges to break the deadlock.

Late last month police said they had found a powerful bomb in the trunk of a car near Thaksin's house, saying it was an attempt to assassinate the prime minister.

Thaksin said a group of up to four military officers had schemed to kill him. Thaksin, 57, was already under increased security following scuffles between his supporters and groups opposing his rule. - AFP/DE


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The New York Times (Bangkok) @ 20 SEP 2006 -- Click Here...

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A couple of close friends whom landed only a couple of days earlier (In Bagkok), do hope they're safe and sound... As long..., muslim's militants in Southern Thailland does not take advantages of the current coup d'état, situation should be managable (IMHO)...


Bangkok Posts' news article..., and video... of the third coup announcement.


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This event would not have happened without the blessings of His Majesty. The Military, has been too quiet in events--and I am sure that it has seen the inadequacies of the past administration in solving the southern problem as well as its illegitimacy with the people--who have been protesting against it for almost a year now.

The Thai government will be placed under provisional military administration for the time being--until stability occurs, which will happen and until a new prime minister will be elected into office.

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From a senior member in the the Thai forum…… Post#058 Serious Talk, Thailand, Asia Finest Discussion :

Economies come and go--the most important of ALL is the stability of our country. Once a new prime minister is elected and once stability is ensured--our economy will grow again.

Think LONG TERM goals, not short term ones.

If the army did not intervene, economy or not--the government and the political state of thailand would have been pervious to a complete collapse and a much feared revolution--the immediate action of the Army in its intervention will cool the flames of the anti-thaksin opposition--as well as change Thaksin's inadequate provisions in handling the southern problem--which the Army has been begging and pleading for much needed attention--but was to no avail.

Thaksin was trying to divide the country into two--by threatening a civil strife unless he remained in power--this was unduly--and I know His Majesty had objections to this. From what my uncles said--the officers that led this liberation was given the blessings from His Majesty the King. This is the only reason they proceeded with the plan. Had the King objected, it would have never been executed.

Thailand, Indeed was in a state of national insecurity before this action.

The intervention of the military has silenced an opposition--and will bring MUCH NEEDED calm to the political arena--and allow a peaceful democratic office. As well as providing effective military protection of the country.
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How will the Thai stock market react to this coup? I am sure all Thaksin related stocks will plunge, not sure about Shin Corp ??

Shin Corp.

That was a blunder, IMHO.

Partly thanks to Singapore "goverment"/Singtel/Temasak for this.

you don think thaksin has got his citizenship here already do you? lol

I'll have to agree with callsign 24 sierra. But I wouldn't say the Thai King had given his "blessings" to this coup. More like a silent consent. The first thing the army did after initiating the coup was declaring loyalty to the King in order the calm the people. At least the people know that the Army was still under the control of the King.

However, I'm still wondering if the objectives of the Army are really as simple as bringing down Thaksin?

I have to applaud them for their timing tho. The coup could have been bloody if Thaksin had been in country instead.

Yeah..., imagine Khazanah Nasional having a 50% stake in SingTel (E.G.)...


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Hmm..., Thaksin Shinawatra being exiled to Singapore..., what's the chances of that happening...??? :rolleyes:

What...??? An Army General convinently being 'invited' for the post of Prime-Minister, reminiscent of the 1991 coup d'état. Last thing this region requires, is another twin-Myanmar. IMHO...


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Err..., Thaksin Shinawatra's family members in Singapore... RFI, any confirmation...???

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It stated with this news on last Friday.......

Thai Army Chief Dismisses Coup Rumours, Report!!
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/060915/16/43fzs.html


Again on the Thai forum (Asia Finest Discussion Forum > Asian Culture > Thai Chat > Thai Serious Talk, Post#11, the following was posted…. about Thaksin’s legacy
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Thaksin, a telecommunications tycoon turned politician, handily won three general elections since coming to power in 2001 and garnered great support among the rural poor for his populist policies. But he alienated the urban middle class, intellectuals and pro-democracy activists.

They began mass street demonstrations late last year, charging Thaksin with abuse of power, corruption and emasculation of the country's democratic institutions, including what was once one of Asia's freest presses. Some of Thaksin's critics wanted to jettison his policies promoting privatization, free trade agreements and CEO-style administration.

Thaksin recently alienated a segment of the military by claiming senior officers had tried to assassinate him in a failed bombing attempt. He also attempted to remove officers loyal to Army commander Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin from key positions.

Sondhi, who is known to be close to Thailand's revered constitutional monarch, will serve as acting prime minister, army spokesman Col. Akarat Chitroj said. Sondhi, well regarded within the military, is a Muslim in this Buddhist-dominated nation.

Sondhi, 59, was selected last year to head the army partly because it was felt he could better deal with the Muslim insurgency in southern Thailand, where 1,700 people have been killed since 2004. Recently, Sondhi urged negotiations with the separatists in contrast to Thaksin's hard-fisted approach. Many analysts have said that with Thaksin in power, peace in the south was unlikely.

As recently as March, Sondhi, the army chief and Tuesday's coup leader, sought to ease speculation the military might join the protests against Thaksin. "The army will not get involved in the political conflict. Political troubles should be resolved by politicians," Sondhi said then. "Military coups are a thing of the past."

Associated Press reporter Jocelyn Gecker contributed to this story.

(IMG:http://img170.imageshack.us/img170/2873/thaksin1sk6.jpg)
The Army: Power comes from the barrel of the gun.

(IMG:http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/558/thaksin2iu3.jpg)
Thaksin: Losing power without a struggle? Does he have any cards left?
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The next few days will be critical. If the army doesn't fragment and fight each other, normalcy and peace will be secured. However, many Thais are still worried about those pro-thakky supporters who might clash with anti-thakky forces (both civilian and government

Latest:
So far:

Police reportedly clearing streets, but no violence reported
• Thai military says nation under martial law
• Thailand's constitution suspended; Army chief to be acting PM
• Foreign news networks taken off Thai cable TV systems

In general, people are somewhat apprehensive on outcome should Thaksin has refused to step down despite calls for his resignation....casualty no.1 => Tourism


I hope peace returns in Thailand soon.

I wouldn't be surprised if Thaksin's family is in Singapore. It is the only safe place in this region right now, during this crisis.

Rather peaceful currently in Bangkok considering the ongoing coup d'état..., dont you think...??? Hopefully..., status quo (With No Anti / Pro-Thaksin Shinawatra's Conflicts) is maintained till the new government is ready to be sworn-in, and it's constitution restored, ASAP...

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Hmm..., coup d'état while strandard in New York City...???

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Mr Taksin appears to be in London. Any job for a ex-PM? Perhaps Consultant PM?

Over dinner some buddies chat about the coup.....It will really help to calm the nerves over at the Land of Thousands Smiles if the King make an official statement.....so far no word from the Palace. :unsure: :unsure:

Hopefully this situation can be resolve peacefully.

With political troubles in Thailand, Natural calamities in Indonesia(2004 Tsunami, and the series of earthquakes).

For some people, the area represents several countries. In eyes of others, the distances across each other is a region, akin to part of larger "nation". These issues does not benefit the people in the region.

SG has a system of rules, check and balances, may not be the most prefect system, as it is attempting to adapt in a changing world.

End of the Day, these check and balances are just words on paper.

What matters is the people. The You and I. That have choosen this as our home.

Some have raised the issue of Economics Defense in the past posting in other threads.

Now it is the Social Defense aspect, does the society at large believe in the idea of Rule of Law, or rule of might.

Hope that none, would make light of the misery that our neighbours are going thro.

His daughter studies in London, perhaps that's why they're there.

Anyway, has anyone withdrawn their recognition of Thaksin as PM, in the international community? It's useless if the UN and everyone still considers Thaksin PM of Thailand and refuses to deal with the new regime,

Guys, I've got a very important question.

Has Singapore commented on this matter? What is our position on the matter? Do we recognise the temporary govt (supposedly unlawful govt) in Thailand? Or are we suspending diplomatic ties to Thailand temporarily? ANy word at all?

Malaysia issue statements liao, they are apparently not recognising the temporary govt in Thailand but will not interfere in what they call Thailand's internal affair.

Singapore watching developments in post-coup Thailand with concern
Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs response.
Link : http://sg.news.yahoo.com/060921/5/singapore231476.html

Hmm, seems like there is no solid reply. What your guesses guys? Do you think we will issue a statement refusing to recognize Sonthi?

Everyone still considers Thaksin the legitimate PM, in terms of protocol etc..

Temasek Holdings: Singapore connection at center of Thai crisis

The overthrow of Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra marked the culmination of a crisis partly triggered by the controversial Singaporean takeover of a major conglomerate from his family.

Singapore's state-linked investment firm Temasek Holdings bought 49 percent of the Thaksin family-controlled telecom giant Shin Corp. in January for nearly 1.9 billion US dollars as part of Temasek's aggressive global expansion.

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Temasek and Singapore officials were stunned when the takeover exploded into a national scandal in Thailand after it was disclosed that the family paid no taxes on its windfall gains from the deal.

At the height of the turmoil, Thai protestors marched on Singapore's embassy in Bangkok and burned posters of its Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and his businesswoman wife Ho Ching, who is Temasek's executive director.

"We continue to monitor the situation, and at this stage it would be premature for us to comment," a spokesperson for Temasek said, stressing that the coup was "a matter for the Thai people to resolve."

Temasek's global corporate portfolio worth over 80 billion US dollars includes some of Asia's best-known companies including Singapore Airlines.

The Singapore government expressed concern over the power grab in Bangkok and said it hoped "the situation will return to normal as soon as possible."

Rodolfo Severino, the former secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), said he did not expect Thai-Singapore relations to be affected by the change of government in Bangkok.

"I think the new (Thai) leader will come here and pay his visit and things will go on," he told AFP.

Singapore and Thailand have long enjoyed close bilateral relations and are among the founding members of ASEAN.

Coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin said the military seized power in order to unite the nation and vowed that a provisional governing council "has no intention to rule but to return power to the people as soon as possible."

Prime Minister Lee, who is also finance minister, told the Singapore parliament in April that Temasek weighed all the risks before acquiring Shin Corp and reiterated that the government does not interfere in the firm's investment decisions.

The risks included "all major categories of investment risk, including market risk, credit risk, regulatory risk, operational risk and political risk," he said.

After the 49-percent buyout of Shin Corp, a Temasek-led group of investors increased its total stake to 96 percent through a mandatory offer but the takeover is now under investigation by the Thai commerce ministry following allegations of irregularities.

"We have complied with all laws of Thailand. We are fully cooperating with the Ministry of Commerce," the Temasek spokesperson said.

Temasek reported a net profit of 8.3 billion US dollars in the year to March 2006, up 71 percent from the previous year, on revenues of about 50 billion dollars, up 18 percent.

Temasek's sterling "AAA" long-term corporate credit rating was reaffirmed Wednesday by debt watchdog Standard and Poor's, with a stable outlook.

"It won't impact Temasek's ratings," Anshukant Taneja, director for corporate and infrastructure ratings at S and P's credit market services, said of the coup, citing Temasek's diverse portfolio and relatively low exposure to Thailand.

Singapore's other national investment arm is the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC), whose chairman is Lee Kuan Yew, the prime minister's famous father and founder of modern Singapore.

GIC invests Singapore's foreign reserves, which are now worth well over 100 billion US dollars.

Link

Thai's King..., Bhumibol Adulyadej, had endorsed authority for the coup leader, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, to lead the Council Of Administrative Reform.

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With Thai's King endorsement of Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin..., shouldn't be a objections..., IMHO... As long as Shin Corporation is to be left alone...

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In Diplomatic Language, Concern is view strongly with interest.

This type of double speak is meant to protect the parties involved, open doors.

The Pro Business Gov, benefit the region. Unfortunately, SG is in a fixed at the moment, thus need to thread carefully for the next few days.

We are definitely in a bind. Temasek, definitely has some issues when it comes to calculating political risk when it comes to foreign investment. The sentiment of the interim administration will be surely watched with very deep scrutiny.

If Thaksin has indeed set up a government in exile, it will place a very interesting spin on things to come.

Mr Taksin's wife has arrived at Singapore as a exile (new appered on the chinese night papers yeasterday), I wonder my country is a "wonderful" place for exiles like her thanks to the ruling family here.

She's already joined her husband in London today. .

So now will now Taksin invest in the EPL football like a football club as he is in England.

Back to the more military side of the coup, sad to say but the soldiers invovled have better SBO and stuff than what we are having.

Lost, Any Pictures? Thanx.

Fewer tanks in Bangkok as Thai army reduces presence

Fewer tanks patrolled the streets of Bangkok Thursday as the Thai army reduced their presence at key government facilities, but troops were not to be completely withdrawn, an army officer said.

Four tanks remained at Government House early Thursday, compared to about 10 the previous day, and there were fewer armed soldiers on guard, a day and a half after the military seized power in a bloodless coup.

"As of now we have only two companies of troops -- some 50 to 60 - deployed at Government House but total withdrawal is up to the army commander because there is not yet complete trust in the situation," Lieutenant Romklao Thuwatham told AFP.

"The army chief is very concerned over security," he said, referring to Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the leader of the coup. "If any small incident occurred, it could lead to violence, but soldiers will try to be relaxed."

Tanks deployed along the main avenue leading to army headquarters and other ministries in central Bangkok were withdrawn late Wednesday, ahead of the first full regular working day since the putsch.

Sources said the Military Council for Political Reform, as the generals are calling themselves, were not fully at ease because some of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's key ministers were gathering at air force bases.

The group included Defense Minister General Thammarak Issarangkura Na Ayutthaya, Air Chief Marshall Kongsak Vantana and Police General Jumpol Manmai, who is the head of the National Intelligence Agency.

Agence France-Presse
The Nation
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30014240

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=84470

There's also speculation that the RTAF have a dedicated Presidential Jet.....even naming it as "Air Force One !".....

http://www.airliners.net/open.file?id=0876...next_id=0763326

The Thai PM usually flies in a RTAF Airbus A310-300 (Photo)

To be fair, if indeed a new plane was being acquired it would be for the Airforce to use as executive transport for the PM. It is not his personal property and will therefore be used by future heads of government.

Govt heavies flee after many held

Thai Rak Thai executives and close aides of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra have scattered abroad while others still in the country have been taken into custody or have gone into hiding upcountry, sources said yesterday.
Party deputy spokesman Jatuporn Promphan said no executives visited the party's headquarters yesterday because of the new ban on assembling in groups of more than five people.
Meanwhile, Thai Rak Thai Party executive board member Veera Musikapong said he and some party members will seek permission from the Administrative Reform Council (ARC) leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin to visit former deputy prime minister Chidchai Vanasatidya, who is being detained at the Army Command.
A senior party member said some key members had left on unscheduled trips abroad before the coup. Former agriculture minister Sudarat Keyuraphan has gone to Paris with her family and is still there, while former interior minister Kongsak Wantana was heading for Germany.
A Commerce Ministry source said former deputy prime minister and commerce minister Somkid Jatusripitak had reportedly changed his return from France to Singapore, instead of Bangkok, as first planned.
Former finance minister Thanong Bidaya was attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Singapore, which ended yesterday.
Rumours spread about a cabinet in exile forming in Singapore when many ex-ministers were reported to be "regrouping" there.
Pojaman Shinawatra, plus two of her children - Panthongtae and Paethongtarn - escaped to Singapore with ousted PM's Office minister Newin Chidchob, on Tuesday night. However, they have reportedly left the city-state to meet daughter Pinthongta in London, where she is studying and the family owns a mansion - and wait for Thaksin to arrive from Washington.
Former foreign minister Kantathi Supamongkhon decided not to return to Bangkok from France, travelling instead to London, where he has a house. Kantathi was in Paris to attend the Thai-France Cultural Exhibition, that was presided over by HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn.
Meanwhile, a source said former deputy prime minister Chidchai Vanasatidya was being held in a safe house by the Administrative Reform Council. Former secretary-general to the prime minister Prommin Lertsuridej and Justice Ministry permanent secretary Somchai Wongsawat, who is Thaksin's brother-in-law, have been placed in separate custody on the second floor of the Army Command building.
The website of firebrand millionaire Ekkayuth Anchanbutr, www.akeyuth.com, reported that Chidchai was arrested at around 9.30pm on Tuesday after he picked up Prommin, who was carrying a black briefcase from Government House. They proceeded to the Army Command, as Chidchai had smelled the coup brewing. They were arrested immediately and detained until 4am yesterday before they were separated in the morning.
Troops went to Chidchai's residence and disarmed the security guards there shortly after he left to see Prommin, the website claimed.
Somsak Thepsuthin, the party's Wang Nam Yom faction leader and ousted labour minister, is in Sukhothai while deposed natural resources and environment minister Yongyuth Tiyapairat reportedly sought refuge at the home of a senior forestry official in a Bangkok suburb before fleeing to abroad.
Senior party members including Chaturon Chaisang, Phumtham Wechayachai and Suranand Vejjajiva are in the country but not detained by the ARC as they are still reachable by phone.
Party deputy and ousted industry minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit, plus former defence minister Thamarak Isarangura and former social development and human security minister Watana Muangsook are reportedly staying in the country at an unidentified location.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/09/21...al_30014226.php
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/09/21/national/

Hmm, "regrouping" in Singapore eh..

I'll be watching these developments very closely..a timely study in politics..

No offense to any Thais, but from another perspective, the Thai monarchy has just brought Tailand back by another 15 years (if he really supported the coup)...that's about the time the last military coup took place. The miltary was very smart, they did the coup and then sought the king's approval, that's like leaving the king without a choice. Who's to say the military didn't tell him that he'd better support them else something shitty will happen to the royal family and blood will be spill? I mean honestly, which investor would want to invest in such a country? I am a banker, its talk of the town...Thailand has just lost its credibility...no matter how peaceful, bloodless etc the coup has damaged the country's overseas image. No amount of legitimacy can justify a military coup over a democratically elected government.....it would seem to me that the people in Thailand are pretty unaware of the responsibilities of democracy and what that really means....they are simply letting their country slide. But then again, hey, maybe they couldn't care less... (Pardon my outburst....its just that I can't understand how democracy can be just thrown away when US is always sending their young men into their harm's way for that word <minus the selfish intents of the US govt>)

Thai's, including the Armed Forces, have the highest respect for the throne. No way..., would anybody (In It's Right State Of Mind) be daring enough as to throw a coup d'état without the prior approval (Silent Or OtherWise) from Thai's King..., Bhumibol Adulyadej.

I beg to differ..., this current coup d'état may infact be a blessing in disguise, economy-wise for Thailand and the region as a whole. For one..., businessman does not give a darm 'bout democracy, as long as financial opportunities are steadily available. I'm no financial advisor though..., so draw your conclusions from the "pros".

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:huh:


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A military coup took place in Thailand at midnight (1700 GMT) on 19 September to depose caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was in New York at the time. The coup is a sign of military disaffection with governmental intervention and royalist fears of Thaksin's autocracy.

In the immediate term, the lack of an interim prime minister poses the greatest risk. However, should a prime minister be forthcoming, the most likely short-term outcome will be democratic elections in November and a possible increase in political stability.

The coup, led by Royal Thai Army (RTA) commander-in-chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin, occurred during a period of political uncertainty following nullified elections held in April 2006. Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin came under increasing pressure to resign in late 2005 and early 2006 amid popular demonstrations in Bangkok.

The demonstrations were a reflection of growing dissatisfaction with the prime minister's seeming creeping autocracy, and were galvanised (although not inspired) by the sale of the his family's telecommunications company, Shin Corp, for USD1.9 billion to a Singaporean holding company, avoiding a 30 per cent tax bill.

In response, Thaksin dissolved parliament in February and called elections in April. However, the parliamentary opposition boycotted the elections owing to an awareness that Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party remained likely to win, owing to support among the rural population. The boycott subsequently led to the elections being declared void in May 2006 by the electoral commission, and fresh elections being called for 15 October.

Problems caused by the lack of a constitutionally acceptable parliament were exacerbated by the uncertainty over Thaksin's position. He resigned immediately after the April elections, only to return as caretaker prime minister after one month. Nonetheless, the military ostensibly remained detached from the political process, in contrast to the cycle of military interventions that occurred during the Cold War period.

This military objectivity became increasingly untenable in mid-2006. Concerns within the military that Thaksin was promoting his allies, in particular fellow classmates of class 10 from the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School (Thaksin attended the school in 1967 and is currently a police lieutenant-colonel) to ranks beyond their experience in order to secure the military before the October elections created greater resentment within the armed forces already concerned about the country's political situation.

For instance, the proposed promotion of First Royal Guard commander and class 10 classmate Major General Prin Suwannathat to First Army Corps commander in an annual reshuffle, despite Sonthi's demand that he only become deputy commander, appeared to be a direct attempt by Thaksin to increase his influence over the military region of Bangkok before elections. An assassination attempt on the prime minister in late August reflected the level of resentment within the military.

The current coup appears to be motivated not only by this military dissatisfaction, but also a desire by royalists within the political elite to secure the monarchy in the face of Thaksin's increasing power. With implicit fears over the longevity of the 79-year old King Bhumibol's reign, and with Thaksin commanding an unprecedented simple majority in parliament, royalists fear that the strongest elected executive in Thai history could undermine the monarchy's remaining constitutional power and influence.

There is as yet no indication of the King's involvement in the coup, and it seems more likely that royalists are acting in his name, rather than under his command. Indeed, Jane's sources have suggested that the Administrative Reform Council's (ARC's) proposed prime ministerial candidate, former RTA commander-in-chief and current Privy Council member General Surayudh Chulanont, was not accepted by the palace.


ForeCast

It is this lack of an interim prime minister that poses the greatest risk to the current situation in the immediate term. With no prime minister there is a lack of direction within the ARC, and an opportunity for Thaksin loyalists to capitalise on the interim government's weakness.

Although an organised counter-coup by class 10 classmates and Thaksin loyalists in the military may prove impossible, given the speed and efficiency with which the coup occurred, localised mutinies are conceivable. Such military instability will be exacerbated by the lack of prime minister.

However, should a suitable candidate be found then the ARC will likely attempt to hold elections by November 2006, prior to the King's birthday in December. Thaksin will no doubt be excluded from these polls, and a new government formed.


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~~ Project-ION Phoenix ~~ ~~ Op. IceBerg ~~ ~~ Iowa_BB61 ~~ ~~ xxKuZNeTxx ~~


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I don't disagree that there are 2 sides to a coin on all issues.

As far as I know and personally believe that no sensible investor would feel comfortable to invest in a country where a coup (which is almost always suppported by the King) is deemed legitimate. This is becos' for a simple reason, they write the constitution, laws etc, but all these don't mean anything becos some new "consitution" would be re-written which in some ways or not would affect business agreements etc signed before the change. Uncertainities and instabilities will always be on the mind of any investor....unless you are dealing with the King directly or the military...but even that is also a question mark.

Some comments..

- Any Coup against a legally elected Government is not accepable.

- If the Coup failed, these leaders are subject to severe punishment. (Treason)

- Strange, that it happened so quickly, surely the troopers loyal to Thaksin should have given instruction on how to handle situation in such an event ?? :blink:

Anyway , they are really smart in their moves.
- Military takeover, seize control of radio/TV stations, block foreign media, block supporters from rural districts , take over Govt. offices and still can creat a atmosphere of peace even though.

- King's role ?

Luckily, this is a non bloody coup, unlike the many others, where many people got shot, and the deposed leader plus family & associates are neutralised.

My 2 cents worth, from an investors point of view, they dont like surprises, they like stability, an environment where they can anticipate what may happened. A sudden transitions like what happened in BKK is not a good sign for long term foreign investors, god knows when they next coup may sprung again which changes the entire business environment in BKK, which may or may not benefit their business operations.

2nd, being a businessman, u wanna avoid paying as less tax as possible legally. Thaksin is a successful businessman, he sold his business to Temasek, from his perspective, why would he want to pay any tax to the government ?

3rd, the King has no control over the army, although he has influence. I doubt he instigates the coup. But its a preemptive strike by the Coup Commanders, what else can the king do ? Either he call them in to give them a tongue lashing or he could endorse it. But so far, we have yet to hear directly from the king's mouth that he endorse it , havent we ?

Support Your Stance

Most Business aim is to Earn Money, some Good Will, some create a name.

If the Climate is unstable, how can someone have confidence that the Business would not be Nationalised, or considered as "unfriendly" to the country and banned in the country.

Rule of Law, means that dealings are in accordance with a set procedures.

True there are alot of grey areas in Law, normal cause of life, rarely touches upon them.

The Countrys Justice/Legislative System need to be on their toes and keep up with the times.