The underwater scene gets complicated in SEA. If this is true, then it will probably on top of RTN's agenda, given that Malaysia in the South and Vietnam in the East are sub equipped.



http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090427/121320414.html

MOSCOW, April 27 (RIA Novosti) - Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg will build six Kilo class diesel-electric submarines for delivery to Vietnam, the Russian business daily Kommersant said on Monday.

The paper quoted company general director Vladimir Aleksandrov as saying that Russia's state arms exporter Rosoboronexport would soon sign a contract with a foreign state, and that Admiralty Shipyards had been chosen to fulfill this contract.

Sources in Rosoboronexport later confirmed that Russia and Vietnam had been negotiating a $1.8 billion deal on the delivery of six Kilo-class submarines to the Vietnamese navy for about a year.

Admiralty Shipyards is currently building two Kilo class submarines for Algeria to be delivered in 2009 and 2010.

Kilo class submarines, nicknamed "Black Holes" for their ability to avoid detection, are considered to be among the quietest diesel-electric submarines in the world.

The submarine is designed for anti-submarine warfare and anti-surface-ship warfare, and also for general reconnaissance and patrol missions.

The vessel has a displacement of 2,300 tons, a maximum depth of 350 meters (1,200 feet), a range of 6,000 miles, and a crew of 57. It is equipped with six 533-mm torpedo tubes.

As of November 2006, 16 vessels were believed to be in active service with the Russian Navy and eight submarines were thought to be in reserve. Another 29 vessels have been exported to China, India, Iran, Poland, Romania and Algeria.

I would think that it's one more balancing act against the growing Chinese influence by their South Seas Fleet.

6 Kilos wow ... that's quite a force if the crews are skillful.

They are better than RSN's subs?

Are the Kiols really that quiet? I mean although quiet is amongst the most important attributes that a sub requires, but I really cannot fathom how quiet can this Russian sub technological hardware be..... if it were really that good, then the sales would be flying sky high instead, you see other countries that can afford it going for either German or French subs instead. But just for the infor, how good / quiet are Kilos against the Agosta, Scorpenne, 212, Collins and of course our Challengers (and the future Vastergotlands)??

The Vietnamese aren't stupid, they definitely dont want a repeat of their previous encounters against the Chinese Navy in the Spratly's....moreover the large newly built Chinese naval base @ Sanya (Hainan Island) is so near them....the Viets would be wise to have a submarine capability to counter the Chinese threat. With the Vietnamese Kilos, the CHinese would have another obstacle in their quest to dominate South China Sea.... It would be great once the Viets have the subs operational and become proficient in operating them....they do have some experience in operating subs as they currently have midget subs (made from North Korea).

Sea denial, right back at the PLAN.

Now LKY ask us to invest and friend friend with the Viets makes sense. If we cannot balance the PLAN, have more buddies who can.

SG inter-operability with Vietnam will be a big issue and unlikely to happen. Viet Kilos will have same signature as PLAN Kilos.

The 4x Klubs equipping each kilo are potent weapons.

Exercises with IN's kilos provides invaluable training.

The RSN may need to speed up submarine mordernisation and even acquisition due to the increase in quantity and quality of submarines in SEA

alas tight budget! 11 Billion slated for this year.

Assume a modest 20% procurement budget will equate to about 1.46-1.5 billion USD for this year. Spread out amongst the various arms? Ooo very very tight.

"Quiet" is a relative term. In the case of submarines its relative to a few considerations.

Quiet relative to the environment. Whether the waters around are noisy, the degree of which it hampers passive sonars from detecting the Kilo, (degraded Signal to Noise Ratio).

Quiet relative to its speed. Whether is it working hard to cut through the water fast, or "drifting" along at under 5kts. Whether its cavitating or not.

Vietnam isn't stupid, but neither is it very rich to afford expensive Western submarines. The Kilos aren't the best diesel boats out there, but they have gained reputation because the Russian or "Non-Western" were the most likely opponents the Western world had to fear. And in terms of submarines, the Kilo was the quietest while running on batteries.

The Kilo's reputation perhaps thanks to the Cold War legacy rather than its actual capabilities. I'm confident the Germans and Swedes are capable of building better boats.

whoa...6 kilos of what for Vietnam? :P

jokes aside, is it fair to say that at present our frigates are the best asset we have against these subs? if so, how effective?

we spend so little on procurement ? i thought our manpower costs are pretty cheap.

huh? cheap? not really. Our NS allowance nowadays are about the same or even higher than some of our neighouring countries regular army pay.....and the food is much better also :D if we only have regular instead of conscript, at current strength, 11 billion may not be enough.

yea i know.

i heard MAF corporal pay lower than our private pay now. 1.1-1.2k ringitt vs 450-550 SGD.

but even if we extrapolate from a force structure of 50k regular + conscript, shouldnt be that much of the budget. besides, its a relative thing too right ? our budget for defense is double that of next door. should allow for these things.

Aimed at China no doubt but at the same time, neighbors may feel threaten. These subs are likely to be used to interdict PLA-N forces from entering the area in the event of a conflict.

The pricing seems to confirm the cost of the Kilos. The Chinese previously ordered 8 for 1.5-2 billion. It would make out to be 200 - 250 mil per sub. Cheap compared to the Scorpenes.

Erm throw in all the civis working under the full MINDEF + NS pay.

Dont need so much. Total just assume average of 4k enough already.

70,000*4k*12 = 3.36 billion ~ 30% if 11 billion liaoz.

==========
Considering Vietnam's distrust with China, 6 Kilos will be the tip of the iceberg for air and naval acquisitions if Vietnam would even want to hold the tide against the future PLAN/PLAAF. Right now, i'm not sure what capabilities they have planned to even consider "tackling" a CBG of China's.

70000 is a bit high. Numbers include those currently serving NSF (~4Xk who only get NS allowance.) Mindef perm staff should number ~1.5k. The rest is SAF regular.

Max is ~$1.2 for LTA which is about the max one can get in NSF.
http://www.mindef.gov.sg/imindef/news_and_...16may02_fs.html

Total should be <~$2b. $1.5b for 30k staff at $4k pm avg and $500-600m for 50k NSF at $1k pm.

Don't forget the NS Cpt(Dr)s. Their pay is around 2-3k IIRC.

Averaged out. Recruit 1st 3 month = $3XX pm + more rec than doc.

should we also include the pay and sustenance of ICT NSmen?

Yes. can easily add ~$600m to $1b (personal estimate) depending on duration of service + IPPT payout and in-service pay allowance.

That plus your estimate on regular+ active is about 3 billion. My estimated of 3 billion is also meant to include NS manpayouts(hence 70k @ 4k/month) which is also about 25-30% of 11 billion dollars.

Vietnam's procurement of 6 kilo class sub should not b taken lightly 4 us too. Although its good dat vietnam could shift the balance of naval power frm being too inclined to the chinese, we musn't 4get dat vietnam is a communist country by nature. Should they change their mind to join forces wif the chinese then we r doomed.

No lah, the Vietnamese hate China far more than we can imagine, as they have gone to war. So very little likelihood of a combined China-Vietnam threat.

However, Vietnam is a competitor to Thailand our traditional ally. As usual, where there is $ we go (and MM also advocates so) and we are a significant FDI participant/investor there. If we go to war with China or Vietnam, our GICs are screwed on their future investment returns in those countries.

When it comes to exercising foreign policy, you can trust the our State to be "cold-blooded" (in the words of Kissinger)

When Vietnam invaded Cambodia in the 70s, the Singapore govt had no qualms siding with the murderous Maoist Khmer Rouge, whom it deemed as the lesser evil

With the historical enmity and suspicion between both nations that still simmering to this day, it's highly unlikely Vietnam and China are going to be buddies anytime.

There's more for Vietnam to gain by strengthening ties with ASEAN members; a community where it enjoys equal standing, than with the PRC (with which it has plenty of 'vassal' state baggage)

Here's a newsflash: ASEAN (esp member states with territorial disputes with PRC) needs Vietnam just as badly to be a bulwark against the burgeoning regional hegemon that sees the South China Sea as it's own pond.

While there's no champagne popping, you can be sure there's quiet cheers among the ASEAN leadership at Hanoi's latest sub buy. For sure Singapore is one of them

Similar sentiments.

While I agree with what you said, I think we need to consider a potential Vietnamese sub stand off against PLAN ships over the Spratlys. What is ASEAN's position on military stand off between some of its member states, against China over strictly speaking, non-ASEAN interests?

The contention over the Spratlys is an affair between the involved states, and not ASEAN as a whole. Do we really want to have Vietnam and China kick off a naval conflict over the Spratlys? I think we need to be careful before we say that ASEAN "quiet cheers" over Vietnam's purchase since a potential stand off between Vietnam and China would be a major security concern to all member states.

In short, my take is that we should not turn the situation into a security dilemma and a self-fulfilling prophecy of conflict. China might be a rising regional hegemon, but we can't yet say for sure that its hegemonic status will be detrimental to ASEAN. Hence, I feel there is a need to promote and encourage a peaceful environment of cooperation between China n ASEAN.

I don't think IAF means that ASEAN will cheer a situation of conflict between Vietnam and China. ASEAN will not stand to gain with such a conflict. I interpret what he's saying as ASEAN member states supporting the increased potential capability that Vietnam gets through the acquisition of subs.

I don't see Vietnam having a real operational sub capability anytime soon, even after getting the subs. They start off from pretty much the same base as we did when we were without subs. Their midget subs don't count for much as far as experience in sub warfare goes, with those midget subs being for SOF insertion only. Problem is, their training won't likely be as good as what we were able to get.

That said, I think the PLAN will be looking at Malaysia's and Vietnam's sub acquisitions with a fair bit of unease. It is not without reason that China bases most of its capable warships in the SSF. Both the ESF and NSF bases are within a stone's throw from Taiwan, Japan and S.Korea which form the 'Great Wall' blockading China's fleet to Pacific access. PLAN's movements through them are easily observed. Only the SSF is 'open' of sorts, though even the S. China Sea is nothing more than a lake with only a few access routes which are gated by ASEAN states, some of which are still suspicious of China. Now with Malaysia and Vietnam, both the most capable among the nations with territorial disputes with China over the Spratlys, getting subs, they face the unpleasant prospect of getting their SSF blockaded in their last open base of Hainan in the event of conflict.

true...but I was just wondering, from a strategic point of view, if PLAN really wants to be expansionist, 6 Kilos will be a nuisance but not a threat right? I mean, if China can factor just taking on the Viets piecemeal then they should be more than equipped to handle that threat, attrition considered...however if SEA bands together then the combined sub fleet might be worth getting concerned about? ALthough I doubt that'll come to pass till a lot later...

hmm..

several qns on my mind.

dosent this latest vietnamese development put a major hole in the string of pearls theory ?

what good is a string of pearls if passage between the bases can be easily interdicted by op-force bases.

secondly, the assumption that vietnam necessarily has to be in opposition to china. i think that may on the surface, seem to be an explicit thing given the animosity in their history and naval clash precedents. but lets not forget, vietnam is a major feeder market for the southern chinese provinces like yunan and all that. pretty close economic linkages i think. scratch a little deeper, and i doubt that you'd find china and vietnam would want to fight a war in the near term or medium term due to the economic linkages between them.

is this unlikely or is this plausible ? i know the economic linkage being a factor in Not waging war is somewhat flawed, but this is pretty critical to both, in their early/mid development stages. doubt they'd want to risk damaging ties long term over immediate petty gains since neither has the ability to seize or hold the spratlys and exploit it in perpetuity without facing severe consequences.

can the vietnamese response be viewed in the context of regional development such as the scorpenes and our vastergotlands rather than solely chinese procurement ? does the canberra class have anything to do with their choice of sub purchase (given no submarine operation experience and suddenly 6 kilos) but i dont seem to be able to find a motive.

is it really simply a response to the chinese ? or is the Asian century going to be the new battleground for great power politics ? what do the semi-powers feel about this ? Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Australia ?

afterall, no great power has ever had a peaceful rise before. always marred by total war that shifts the balance of power by direct or proxy means of combat.

No, I don't think so. The 'string of pearls' allows China to project force via the PLAN further from its shores by giving them refueling and temp operating bases. Now, Vietnam and all the other countries like Japan are not threats under normal circumstances and are unlikely to all be at a state of conflict with China at the same time, so the rationale for China's string of pearls isn't affected IMO.

Few countries want war. Surely neither Vietnam nor China would find getting into a state of conflict with each other palatable right now. Vietnam knows it is hard to win against China, China knows it is too early to bare its fangs so openly with a war right now. That'll just give ASEAN over to the Yanks. But often those in power may find events spiraling out of control with conflict the only recourse.

Probably a secondary reason. But an access denial asset like subs are mainly to cause trouble for a superior enemy, the same way the PLAN concentrated on subs to deny access to the USN. Who is the superior force which Vietnam had a clash with over the Spratlys?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXTTJAL52Pw...re=channel_page

hey YF. thanks for the insights. appreciate it.

i was thinking in that sense, if you have plenty of opposition sub forces that can interdict your fleet movement between the string of pearls, dosent that render the string of pearls ineffective during war time ?

i mean, you dont need all the countries to be opposed to PLAN movement between the string of pearls, just one or two navies at several choke points would probably be enough to isolate the PLAN's movement.

that would leave the forward bases empty and vulnerable. seems to me kinda like the british strategy of building forward naval bases to service and support the RN in WWII but assuming that the fleet would be able to sail there unopposed. has its flaws as well.

im not too sure. of all the great/ 2nd tier powers at the EAS and APEC community, china has been the most forthcoming in building free trade and building interdependence in economic terms with ASEAN. for all practical intents and purposes, ASEAN may already be within china's "economic backyard".

give ASEAN to the Yanks ? dont quite see why and how that may occur, ASEAN has always tried to tread the middle ground between great power politics.

agreed. just trying to look at it from another POV and explore other possibilities. i still think we are locked in an arms race and the so called asian century will never materialize unless we ASEAN countries get our act together and actually achieve some degree of economic and political integration. very destabilizing.

The issue with economic interdependance is that if not managed carefully, ASEAN could end up being too close to the Chinese orbit, and move away from her founding goals as a regional security community that sets the basis for peaceful political and economic integration and a player that balances all major powers in the SEA-EA region.

The latter two is vital to the nations within ASEAN because if we are split asunder by too many bilateral-within-multilateral objectives, the goal of a common market to actually help sustain ASEAN as a visible and sustainable trading bloc may slowly fade away..

Sure, the Chinese are highly engaged in trade with us, but it seems to me that it is more of bilateral approaches which may actually form a case of eroding institutional solidarity within ASEAN, but from a realist perspective, who could blame nations like Singapore, Malaysia or even Indonesia from seeking such an approach when the rest of ASEAN collectively is still far from achieving any form of collective economic or political strength that can be an alternative model to bilateral trade deals.

China is increasingly savvy at playing with her soft power skills, that's as far as it can be seen right now.

The factor of the Australian build-up can be a realistic assumption for a regional balance of power game that may intensify, and perhaps this delicate balancing might be good for all parties concerned, especially if China has to choose between allocating more funds for economic and social development as opposed to greater re-armament in the next 10 years. If you are constrained, you may want to bide your time especially if you do not have unlimited funding in times of financial turmoil.

Or, is it just a case of delaying tactics.. hmm.

If any navy imposed a blockade along the SLOC, then having a string of pearls would allow for the nearest unimpeded 'pearl' to serve as a logistical base. Example. If India tried to cut China's oil flow by imposing a blockade targeting China bound vessels (assuming that's possible), then its 'pearl' in the Coco Islands and Sittwe would help.

If China openly fought with Vietnam, it would certainly cause the jitters among ASEAN and make them seek the greater involvement of the US into this region. Remember the last time China used force in the Spratlys, in the early 90s (I think)? There was a good deal of consternation then about China resorting to force.

Everybody wants submarines!

Frankly, I think getting more MPAs would be better for them.

The waters are going to turn into dolphin soup pretty soon.. :lol:

MOSCOW - VIETNAM has signed a deal to buy 12 Russian Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets from Russia for about US$500 million (S$735 million), Russian media reported on Thursday, citing industry sources.

'A contract to deliver SU-30MK2 (jets) was signed by (state arms export monopoly) Rosoboronexport at the start of the year,' Interfax news agency quoted a defence industry source as saying.

Vedomosti business daily, citing two defence industry sources, said deliveries of the 12 supersonic jets would begin next year. Rosoboronexport refused to comment on the report.

Experts polled by Vedomosti and Interfax estimated the contract would be worth between US$500 million and $600 million.

The Su-30, known as 'Flanker-C' to NATO, is a more formidable version of the Su-27. It made its first flight in the days of the Soviet Union but was introduced to service in post-communist Russia in 1996.

Vedomosti reported in April that Vietnam was in talks with Rosoboronexport to deliver six Project 636 Kilo-class diesel-powered submarines in a deal estimated by the business daily at US$1.8 billion.

If that deal is secured, Vietnam would become one of Russia's top-five arms sales customers, Vedomosti reported. -- REUTERS

Straits Times


Suggestion: Maybe we can have a Vietnam thread for all related posts.

There's already a thread on the Vietnamese Armed Forces....we can continue the discussions there.....

http://militarynuts.com/index.php?showtopic=1156&st=30&hl=

IMO, the gradually warm-up between the 2 giants US & China prompts the regional small players to boost their own defense against China rather than hoping external helps.

http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/03/25/5638619.html

Russia will help Vietnam to build its own submarine base, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov told reporters at the end of his official visit to Hanoi. Vietnam intends to purchase six Russian submarines. Also, Russia will participate in building a Vietnamese repair dockyard that will provide repair and maintenance support to Russian ships as well, the minister said. He pledged support in creating and modernizing Vietnam’s Air Force. The volume of Russian arms exports to Vietnam has more than tripled in the past two years from $1 billion in 2008 to $3.5 billion in 2009.