Hot spot—South China Sea

Recently, SCS re-emerges into people’s eyes with US speaking out that SCS is also its core interest, effectively declared SCS is another arena for Sino-US wrestling.

What is going to happen next in addition to Sino-Viet, Sino-Philippines , Sino-Malaysia disputes in SCS deems to be hot topic, there’re scattered posts in various threads addressing all those issues and with this new thread, hopefully there can be a place to gather all the relevant discussions.

http://www.todayonline.com/World/EDC100724...o-stability--US

China responded with a massive naval-air joint drill in SCS recently, with all main warships from 3 fleets including 051C DDG 116 from North sea fleet, SOVREMENNY DDG 139 from East Sea fleet , 052B DDG169 052C DDG 171 from South sea fleet.

The video link: http://news.cntv.cn/20100730/104067.shtml

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/A...ory_559889.html

Recently Japanese media reported a standoff between Indonesian Naval vessels and Chinese fishery escort vessel in SCS near Natuna Islands:

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20100727...00000-maiall-cn

Brief translation is: on 23/06/10, one Indonesia naval gunship has detained several Chinese fishing boats, then the Chinese Fishery escort vessel with machinegun showed up and under the watch of another Indonesian OPV, has successfully taking back the Chinese fishers being detained.

Another development :

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/07...s-court-us.html

RMAF C-130H aircraft over flew the Chinese maritime surveillance vessel around Spratlys:





U shot me, I shot u :lol:

The Chinese would only respect international law as it deems fitting to its own purposes.....it would interpret international law as and how it wants and needs to.... that is why countries in SCS are concerned with their each and every move....look at the Indonesian island of Natuna.....its now under the covetous eyes of the Chinese and all sorts of theories and claims (historical and mythical....plus imagination) are coming out.....the Indonesians would do well to make a strong stand on such incidents else it gains more momentum and strength....

I am afraid that SG may irritate PRC by not standing by them.

Get this from 90 cents paper, sort of funny :D

calling singapore small in an international forum would be a perfect wedge against singapore and china relationship.

but would a season diplomat loose his cool and said such things?

it just doesnt make any sense.

I think this current PRC foreign affairs minister is not doing his job well. He should be garneing the rapport of other nations rather than adopting an aggressive stance. The more offendsive PRC is, the more US will gain. US already gain a very strong foothold in the North Asia countries such as Japan, SK already. Now US is working towards the South Asia countries using Spartley as excuse.

Why should they be worried about building up international rapport with the smaller countries in ASEAN? With the continued rapid growth of the economy and upgrading of military hardware, PRC have already become a major power house that over-shadows ASEAN as a collective organization. Considering that ASEAN nations are very much smaller than PRC, thus having limited economy and mililtary power, not point for PRC to continue playing "charade", pretending to be an innocent dove. As time goes by, these small countries will have no choice but to gravitate under their sphere of influence

In the meantime, Vietnam's chief of navy makes courtesy call...

http://www.mindef.gov.sg/imindef/publicati...ul_10_news.html

For those that can read chinese, see what their (China's forum) new story about the Natuna Islands is. And it also hint that if they can claim the Natuna Islands, then Singapore could be next.

China's forum article on the Natuna Islands

Honestly, I am more wary about the PRC than anyone else. They have a growing ambition. Y can't PRC claim back Mongolia which they have every justification fo do so? :blink:

Mongolia has not much natural resources I assume... unlike SCS and the Spratleys

Speaking of which what natural resources does Mongolia have? Other than lots of grazing pastures. :D

Mongolia do have mineral deposits. you can google the country profile and see.

Because china doesnt want a common border with Russia if they can help it.
Mongolia is a convenient buffer between 2 huge neighbours.

Well, if suddenly they find a large deposit of oil or gas in Mongolia, u can bet your last dollar that China will be interested.
In fact, I wouldn't be the least surprised if an international incident is "cooked up" that requires China's intervention! ;)

Yes..back to stone age, Mongolia is part of China. :P

Not stone age...under Qing Dynasty, Mongolia is either directly or indirectly under Qing China just like Korea is a protectorate of China(pays tribute to Chinese Imperial Court on a regular basis) then until the Japanese invaded and colonised Korea.

yea so let's go back alittle bit to after the Song...when China belonged to Mongolia (well so was much of Asia and most of eastern Europe) =P

Also there are alot of minerals in Mongolia. Rio Tinto is in there digging it all up =D

If China has its way (heaven forbid) it would declare that it has suzeranity over Indo China, all of SEA (including large parts of Indonesian archipelago; already starting) and even Ceylon...... with reference to old grand father/mother ancient stories.....

There must be some consensus among SEA that they need to have some sort of military cooperation (minus those arrangements between UK, Australia, NZ, Malaysia and Singapore)....... ASEAN isn't a military co-op, but its about time to consider it.....

From the looks of all the multilateral exercises with SEA countries, it seems like the U.S is interested in resurrecting SEATO to counter-balance China and to lock American interests in the region.

The only worry about such an approach is that it requires the common perception of a common "enemy." That means, South East Asia would be inevitably dragged into the friction between China and the U.S.

As for China playing by the rules of international institutions, I think that is unlikely. It is a country that has a long history of being dominated by western civilizations and probably still thinks that the West is still trying to screw it over. It is unlikely that it will participate fully and in act in accordance to international norms that are not in its own interests.

We are seeing the day when armed forces of Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia may operate as one against a single enemy towards a common interest.

we already did that during the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia.

We didn't really help that much. We sent them ammunition n stuff to fight with, but no real boots on the ground if I recall.

as mentioned before, our commandos conducted joint border patrol in Eastern Thailand. the point being, had hostilities really broke out, I am sure we would have been fighting on Thai soil.

It looks like the concentration of military forces are taking place at sea now. As many defence analysts pointed out, SG and regional countries are realising that threats much further north away rather than neighbouring nations. It is more realistic that hostilties break out between SEA countries against someone up north than between SEA countries. I think this is what we have all been training & preparing for.

Mongolia hates China. I can't remember why, but one example I was told was that train tracks running from China to Mongolia are intentionally widened on the Mongolian side so that Chinese trains cannot enter. They'd gladly go through the trouble of unloading and reloading the cargo at the border than see a Chinese train enter.

Reading this, made me remember the President character played by Bill Pullman in the movie 'Independence Day", of course changed the word 'world' & 'MANKIND' to ASEAN:

:P

SEA would still be dragged into a US-Sino confrontation simply by being the stakes of this tussle.....China views SEA as its rightful backyard etc....The US views otherwise.....so be it we put our heads into the sand like an ostrich or we band together like mongooses against a King Cobra, we are involved in this tussle....only a wise decision of the scenario we want to be in would make a difference.

PLAN and PLAAF are progressing along the lines of increasing its reach.....they do so via any means possible - longer range radars and detection capabilities and also longer ranged missiles etc..... whether or not these are efficient and reliable or not they dont care....all they want is to have that ability to "touch" their adversaries.... each country which has a dispute with China over SEA territories (be it perceived, ancient, historical, imagined etc) should take the initiative to publish or enforce their rights more openly via publishing their own maps and making the necessary applications or submitting any claims or cases to UN or any international bodies which are tasked with such cases. Only then would it be made known openly on their cases and the Chinese would have to openly challenge these via the proper channels which these cases were filed....unless like recently where they embarked on gunboat policy where they occupied several reefs etc which the Philippines staked out (unsure if these were properly filed by the latter).
ASEAN would also assist the Philippines in building up their navy and airforce via cooperation to train their personnel and perhaps donating or selling cheaply to them ex-maritime aircrafts and vessels. Of course the US could help by supplying ex-US or surplus aircrafts and ships which the Philippine Navy & Air Force would sure benefit.

US has the option to play either their North Asia (SK, Japan, Taiwan) or South Asia (SG,MY,Thai, Viet, Phil, Indo) cards. Deploy forces, sell weapons, joint exercise etc. Reasons is because US have built up a camdarie of trust & confidence with these countries. If these 2 options are not viable, they can always count on their offshore bases such as Hawali, Guam etc to project their force.

Unfortunately for PRC, they either stake on their own or play NK card. Even then it is hard to leash NK, they cannot sell military hardware to NK and NK will only co-operate in exchange for perks always.

does singapore wish to risk its billions of investment and trade in PRC over islands that is no concern of her?

does America, Japan, SK, Australia and EU wish to risk their billions in chinese trade and investment over afew islands they stand little or nothing to gain from?

who is more important to the global economy, the PRC with its 2nd largest GDP (and continue to expand rapidly) on this planet or afew 3rd world nation who cant even get themselves out of their political quadmire.

lastly, who wanna pay for upgrading malaysia, philipine and vietnam's military equipment? singapore?

at the end of the day, the struggle in NE asia and SE asia over nukes and islands respectively are merely cards that the US and PRC plays against each for their own respective gains and benefits.

neither really cares about us, neither would risk all for us too.

if by helping PRC gain all the islands in SEA would generate massive gains and rewards for USA, who dares say american would not turn their backs on us for their own national interest?

I don't actually agree with flooding SEA countries with surplus weapons and platforms. SEA is not exactly a very united region despite ASEAN and its evident by all the intra-ASEAN disputes, quarrels and border skirmishes. Most recent being the Cambodia - Thailand skirmishes. Once these countries are armed up, and if China takes a step back, these countries will refocus their attention on each other again.

The thing about more advanced weapons systems being introduced to a country is that somewhere up the political leadership, they get a bit more cocky and self-confident of their country's prowess. That raises the risks of military conflict.

The best solution IMO, is still to pull the U.S military into the region and use their power to balance against China's. On top of that, relations with India can be improved as well for the same purpose though US presence is still key.

Despite these claims, I doubt China will dare to do what it did in the Paracels for now. To militarily claim the Spratly's and the SCS will almost throw the doors wide open for American "policing" action. Despite significant PLAN and PLAAF advancements, they are still no match for the U.S Navy at the moment.

If the US intervenes, it won't be because of SG. Even if China succeeds in taking over the whole of the Spratleys, it won't have one aorta of threat to SG.

Why does SG want to kay-poh into the issue?

The right to navigation and free passage does have an impact on trade and SG. Any hostility in the South China Sea that will increase insurance rates and force diversion of shipping will have an impact on SG's economy.

What no one wants to see is the Spratleys turning into some kind of a cold war zone. Where military structures abound and risk to shipping increases. That applies to the US (no business of theirs either) as much as China.

Most people don't realise that it is China that has precipitated this issue with their military exercises/forays into the region in recent months. Sabre rattling even if it is in their right only sends the wrong signals as recent experience shows....

In short, RSN would probably need frigate size vessels next to replace the MCVs to give RSN the ability to act as escorts for commercial vessels through the SCS.

Flat deck.

Even PLAN deploys its aircraft carrier, it will still not be a match to US Navy. Ship is not everything but rather the battle tactics. Russia also have a aircraft carrier for many years but still hardly a match to US Navy.

Risk is also from submarine.

New sub base in Hainan. Hordes of SSKs well within range.

Currently the only response is the 2 MY scorpenes based at Sepanggar.

It would also be useful to have a ASW flat deck. That's where the RAN canberras or the Thai's Chakri Nareubet could come in. Probably same reason why Korea and Japan going for flat decks.

USN only has 3 LA-688s based at Guam.