I was wondering what would you do if you were Taiwan, and your agenda was to be an independant state. How would you go about achieving that goal? Please take note of the following parameters:

1. China's economy is outgrowing Taiwan's. As such, it is almost certain that Taiwan will NOT be able to match China's miltary modernisation dollar for dollar.

2. Take it that military paririty will be achieved by China in 2006.

3. China aims to achive unification by 2021 using any means necessary.

4. China will retaliate with WMD should any attack be carried out on its mainland resulting in a major loss of life and property. (An attack on the Three Gorges Dam?)

5. America's assistance is by no means assured.

6. Its assistance, even if granted, is not neccessarily on time, or definitely able to fend off a chinese attack.

7. Until 2015, China's main means of coercion will be wargames off Taiwan's coast, or a military blockade of the island.

What would you do?

Short of developing a nuclear bomb, and assuring that it will be used on China should it ever have its sovereignty threatened, I dont see how Taiwan would have to accept reunification sooner or later...... But let's discuss what Taiwan may try.......

Should we create a Speaker's Corner for this sort of discussion. I thought this is purely for Military stuff! Especially on military technologies

I am interested in discussing topics like this, but I am sure that it is better to direct this at a better discussion group ;)

It is often pretty difficult to have a military discussion without often straying into the realm of politics. The 2 are often closely linked, particularly for an issue such as this.

Please feel free to continue this discussion, I'll post my thoughts here after I get home from work :P

Since the mod reckons it is ok to post politics here... I guess I will continue to post my thoughts here....

The scenario given gives Taiwan a very limited chance of survival (militarily). However, I will take a hard look at Israel especially during the 50s to the 80s at how they constantly fend of much bigger forces and survived till now.

1. Taiwan needs to start building a strong external economy that will help generate a massive foreign reserve. Have a strangle hold on some niche market like PC hardware / motherboard, memory, etc. Have many big foreign (US and European) stakeholders in many enterprises in Taiwan. Have Taiwanese companies have major stakes in many foreign corporations. Basically, the bigger the Taiwanese build its economy, the greater the chance to survive – use the “if we go down, so will many of your pockets….” To the Americans and the Europeans.

2. Try to play victims, exaggerate the extend of how China treats Taiwanese general population with the threat of war, the forbidding to Taiwanese public to gain better health through the joining of WHO, etc. Sing out how badly Hong Kong and Macau turned up politically. Show how China never keeps its promises (no changes for 50 years is just BS).

3. Maintain information technology edge over China. Develop strong non-lethal attacks, especially as China is trying to move towards the information technology age. Develop technologies like EMP to shut down major Chinese cities, military machines, factories, etc. without killing lives.

4. Develop a “scorpion sting” reputation like Singapore. Show China that if it attack first, it will suffer both militarily and economically. Political repercussion will also happen due to point 1. Play the “Chinese killing ethnic Chinese” tune. Play the emotional card using the general public.

5. By 2008, develop a credible defence force – not just on paper.

a. naval force that can break a naval blockage. Taiwanese navy needs more smaller ships than big old American junks. Get Singapore to sell them 6 Formidable. Update their Kang Ding. Build fleets of LCS.

b. Develop better offensive air force. Build long range stand off missiles that can be launched from the Mirage 2000-5s and the Vipers. (eg. Delilah – hint hint). Buy 2 sqn of Rafales to replace their F-5Es by 2012.

c. Develop counter airborne troops, counter paratroopers technology. Build new light tanks (ST 120mm light tank – hint hint) and stop relying on their (CM11, CM12).

6. Invest heavily on indigenous military technologies acquired from countries like Singapore, South Africa, (not Israel given they are in bed with China) and India.
7. Do what the Jewish people do to the US Congress…. Have strong lobby interest groups in both the US Congress, White house, EU (especially UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy).

8. Attempt to build even stronger (diplomatic) relationships with new EU countries like Poland, Czech republic, etc.

9. Start building strong relationships with Russia, Japan and Korea. Conduct join military training with Japan and Korea. Purchase military equipments from Russia and have psuedo military talks J

10. Eventhough China military will be stronger by 2015, they will know that by taking Taiwan in force, the price is to pay is to throw China at least 10 years back economically, and have a total “human rights” repercussions. Play the China is inhuman card.

While I do not agree that they are getting American junks (Kidd class destroyers are by no means 'junk', even when compared with Sovremennys), I strongly agree that they should have invested more on LCS like platforms. In fact, given the fact that ASW and ASuW is a more pressing need, LCS is a perfect choice for them. (you gotta love their ability for AsuW with their NLOS system, as well as their ability to deploy a SOSUS-like array for ASW)

Regarding Taiwan's efforts to build diplomatic ties with other countries, their efforts have alsays been thwarted by China's threat to deny market access to any country who recognises Taiwan. (With us or against us thinking)

I also agree that Taiwan should build up good non-lethal capabilities. Info-ops capabilities should be boosted. However, the drawback to these capabilities is that, though they are powerful, they do not provide a deterrant capability. How would you deter China with a capability that has to be kept clandestine to be effective? Add that to the fact that these capabilities are not quantifiable, like platforms such as ships, tanks etc....

get some Nukes....then it'd be a MAD situation

They already suspected to have bio/germ weapons facilities ... thought to be inherited from Japan after WWII, how advance they are or whether they still exists much remains a mystery

No country except the US would sell arms to the Taiwanese now. Why offend China over Taiwan?

BTW, ROC's Kang Ding frigates are actually full sized French La Fayette variation and so is our Formidable Class but smaller

The best solution is to stuff the independence crap and start talking at the conference table. Most of their conscripts are just as happy with serving as the "Armani" boys in the SAF.

Considering that they are the defenders, they may not need to match mainland China's might. All they need is to have a counter-amphibuous assault capability. With their recent moves to develop a poison shrimp capability, that will give China pause in their considerations to attack Taiwan. However, with China's thick air defense net, I strongly doubt that any conventional air attack on China would work. Sending planes to China would be sending them on a one-way trip.

I somehow feel that investing in cruise missiles and TBMs like China's M-9 and M-11 series will be a much better deterrant than spending money on equipping an air force for interdiction/deep strike missions. Demonstrating a capability to cause considerable damage to China's vital infrastructure (like dams, nuke power stations etc) is a very powerful deterrant. Usage of TBMs to attack their ports will severely hamper any amphib operation too....

If I were Taiwan, I will realise that it's a lost cause.....

1) Place ppl close to the leaders in the southern provinces.

2) Gather all financial might (maybe with USA) and attack the YUAN. Cause economic havoc. But do it very discretely.

3) Objective being to get the provinces especially Guangdong and Fujian to break away from central and maybe join Taiwan to form a new economic market.

4) Maybe do a SARS thing in the northern provinces to tie down some of their resources. Bomb the yellow river dam and create widespread flooding. Do it in the flooding season - Summer.

5) Finance a rebellion in Manchuria Tibet. Give those Muslims something to raise havoc in the west.

6) With all the chaos, it'll probably take a while before they realise the perpetrator is Taiwan and draw up a military response.

7) By then the new China would be born hopefully with UN recognition......and this MAY allow central to re-think attacking Taiwan and focus first on re-building what's left of the country.

Best way is really to re-integrate......by bringing outstanding value (mostly economic maybe some technology) to the re-unified entity so that they can bargain harder for more autonomy.